Kyle and Alex boxing picks for 2/22/2020

Wilder-Fury 2

One of the more anticipated heavyweight championship fights of the past twenty years is finally here. After thinking we were going to get an immediate rematch after their first fight we were forced to wait as each of them took a couple fights and now we are back to where we should be. This should be a good one and also rare in that we have a PPV fight where the odds in Vegas are almost even instead of 5-1 like most PPV mismatches they try to sell us. 

Going over the first fight quickly, I, like most people had Fury winning. But I would not call the draw a robbery or a black eye for boxing like a lot of the know it alls you see on tv. I gave Fury 9 out of 12 rounds but with Wilder scoring two knockdowns my final score was 115-111. Some early rounds were close so a controversial decision but not the worst I had ever seen. 

The common sense theory for Fury to win would be to do what he did in the first fight which is to box and avoid Wilders big right hand and a decision victory should happen. Avoiding that big right hand though is harder than it may seem. As for the talk from Fury and his camp that he is coming in heavier than the last fight because he wants to stand with him and knock him out, I do not believe it. I barely ever believe any of the pre fight talk from fighters and trainers. If Fury uses his movement and jab and trades when it is to his benefit then I think he has a very good chance to win.

When it comes to Wilder there is just one thing to talk about, his power. In my opinion he is the hardest punching heavyweight of all time. Bigger than Foreman, Tyson, Liston and Marciano. I do not believe he should be rated higher than those guys for overall ability but single punch power he stands alone. Another underrated tool he brings is his heart and desire. Always in shape and he has been hurt several times in fights and he always finds a way to come back. 

This is a tough fight to pick. The odds in Vegas are almost even with Wilder a very slight favorite. That is mostly because in both guys two fights since their first one Wilder has fought and beat better competition than Fury has. What it comes down to for me is who is the better fighter. In my opinion that is obvious, its Fury. He is better in every department other than punching power. I feel there is a better chance that Fury outboxes him than Wilder landing that big shot. And even if he does it better be his A+ right hand because we’ve seen in the first fight that Fury has a good chin and very good recuperative powers if he is hurt. While I would not be shocked if Wilder does land the big one I am going with Fury. 

Prediction

Fury UD 12

Undercard

-Look for Albany’s Amir Imam on the undercard fighting former US Olympian Javier Molina in a very good fight on paper. 

-Another decent heavyweight scrap on the undercard featuring fringe contenders Charles Martin against Gerald Washington. If you are looking for a fight to bet where you can get good odds this is the one. Washington is almost a 3-1 underdog and I have him winning. 

-Emanuel Navarrete is defending his WBO Super Bantam title on the undercard as well.

 Alex’s Boxing Picks-2/22/2020-

Wilder vs Fury II – The rematch of a fight of the year candidate from 2018, this heavyweight attraction promises to be another can’t miss fight! These two are going to start on round 13 of what was a fantastic back and forth fight last time around and I expect to see a lot more drama before this fight is done. Tyson Fury has had a bizarre journey over the course of his career and it is all by his own doing. Fighting his way up to his first major title shot he eventually shocked the world with a 2015 upset of then heavyweight king pin Wladimir Klitschkothis was followed by a severe mental breakdown which included drug issues and weight issues as well to put it simply his out of the ring life grew tumultuous. It would be almost 3 years before he boxed again he came back for a pair of get well wins in the summer of 2018 before stepping up to the new top fighter at heavyweight-Deontay Wilder. The fight was an instant classic, back and forth action from both fighters leading to a violent chess match that most at ringside saw Fury winning by a round or 2 before the final round. Fury was dropped and out cold in the 12th from a pair of vicious shots by Wilder and despite the fight appearing over he not only beat the count but arguably won the rest of the round! The fight was scored a draw and that is why we are here to see it all play out again hopefully to a more decisive result.

Their initial meeting was all that you could ask for in a big heavyweight marquee event. In between this fight and their last meeting each fighter has fought twice and each has won twice, but it is Wilder who has the better pair of wins between them. Both of his wins have also come by KO whereas fury had a hard time with a relatively unknown fighter his last time out and had to go the distance for a decision. Wilder has lost more rounds in the ring since their last meeting but he continually has shown that it doesn’t matter how he starts in a fight because he can always bail himself out with his power.

Both are unconventional fighters style wise and both of them move better than you would think they would. I know that Wilder can be very messy at times with the way he throws punches especially when he has a guy hurt and is looking to finish. He can also place his shots beautifully look at his 2 fights with Luis Ortiz, the knockout of Artur Szilpka, or the KO of Dominic Breazeale. The man finds a way to land his right hand in fights and it only takes one shot to end a fight he can never be counted out due to this power. It is a difficult task to avoid those shots for the full 12 rounds, that being said Fury got pretty close to shutting those out their first fight! Fury is a slick fighter for a big man he moves well around the ring, has fast hands, and sticks with his jab. He did a great job sticking the jab and moving around Wilder during their first fight and he was able to build combinations and stack points up by out boxing Wilder. I know during the prefight press conferences Fury has talked a big game about knocking out Wilder and he may very well have that intention but I don’t expect him to fight that way unless he gets Wilder in very bad shape. I expect him to box on the outside and smother Deontay when they get close. I think Fury is going to fight in an awkward and frustrating style in an attempt to negate any right hands from Deontay. This may make for a tedious fight especially because I see Deontay being patient enough to wait for just one opportunity to land his signature shot and he will be content to stalk Fury around the ring with his guard high. 

While I usually pick the better boxer over the puncher, I feel the need to go with Deontay for this fight. I think there is a higher chance that he can land one shot to put Tyson Fury out of it than I do that Fury will avoid the right hand all night and box his way to a win. Pick-  WILDER BY KO ROUND 9 OR LATER

Alex’s Picks 1/11/2020

Munguia vs O’Sullivan- Saturday night on DAZN Jaime Munguia kicks off his 2020 campaign by squaring off with Spike O’Sullivan at his new 160lb weight. Style wise, I expect some fireworks from these two. Both guys are punchers, neither have really great defensive instincts, and they are both offense first defense third kind of fighters. After bursting onto the scene with a dominant K.O. over Sadam Ali, Munguia had a varied series of outings in 2019. Most notably was a majority decision win over Denis Hogan that easily could’ve been a draw or gone the other way. While still young I believe this is something of a crossroads fight for him. He has moved up into a very competitive weight class and is taking on an interesting gate keeper in O’Sullivan. Spike is no stranger to being the B side in big fights and also has been in there with a supposed prospect before on a night where he broke down and brutally KOed the once touted Antoine Douglas. He is however a fighter that has always fallen short of winning a big fight, losing to Billy Joe Saunders, Chris Eubank and a one starching at the hook of David Lemieux. Tomorrow night I figure to be another one of these losses at the hands of an unproven but powerful prospect. I think that youth is going to serve Munguia well here and he will break down and stop O’Sullivan in the 7th round. Expect a real shootout with both guys taking and giving big shots it will be a fun fight while it lasts! Pick: Munguia TKO 7

Hart vs Smith – Also on Saturday night Jesse Hart takes on Joe Smith on ESPN in a pivotal light heavyweight bout. This is a must win fight for both guys and the victor can expect a big fight later this year in the loaded light heavyweight division, possibly for the belt recently vacated by Canelo. Style wise I favor the more technically sound Hart against the puncher Smith. Hart can box well on the outside he is very active, moves well, and sticks a sharp jab. HOWEVER I think it will be Smith that prevails in this fight and here is why- While Hart is the technically superior fighter tomorrow night he tends to not fight that way and he gets hit a lot with big shots as he has shown in both of his fights with Gilberto Ramirez. Smith has one punch power and it’s a reasonable thought that over the course of the 10 round fight he will find an opportunity to connect and capitalize. If and when this happens I think he will be able to get Hart out of there and shock the boxing world again with another KO. While I’m typing this I’m also thinking it could turn into a chess match with Hart staying on the outside and Smith attempting to solve the riddle of closing the distance over the distance of the fight, but, I am sticking with my instincts and taking Smith to win by a late KO. Pick: Smith KO 8

Joshua VS Ruiz 2 12/7/2019

Kyle’s Pick

Anthony Joshua vs Andy Ruiz

Odds

Joshua -220

Ruiz + 180

O/U 7.5

One of the more competitive big fights you will get in boxing this year. Many people who know boxing are split on who will win. And most of that is because of the way Ruiz won the first fight. He did not just land one shot and knock Joshua out like Rahman did with Lewis and Mccall also did with Lewis. In the rematches of those fights Lewis destroyed both of them because he was just the better fighter. Im not sure that Joshua, the favorite in the first fight and also the rematch is the better fighter here. There is no doubt that Ruiz throws better combinations and has more skills. Joshua makes up for that though with his size, his jab and his power. And he showed a huge heart in his big win against Klitschko but in some peoples eyes he did not show the same heart against Ruiz. That may be a little unfair but the bottom line is Ruiz basically beat the fight out of him. When the referee stopped it Joshua had had enough. And it was over the course of 7 rounds, not just one punch. And that is the main reason I will take Ruiz in the rematch even though my gut keeps telling me that Joshua is supposed to win the fight. 

Prediction

Ruiz TKO 6

Undercard

Alexander Povetkin vs Michael Hunter

Povetkin is a former heavyweight champion, Olympian and a knockout loser to Anthony Joshua several fights ago. One of the better heavyweights of past ten years. Nearing the end of his career but still able to fight.

Hunter is a former Cruiserweight title challenger who has won several fights at heavyweight after moving up. He was also an Olympian and the son of former heavyweight contender Mike “Bounty” Hunter from the early 90’s…

Prediction

Hunter by Close Decision

Alex’s Pick

Joshua vs Ruiz-

The Cinderella story of 2019 gets a quick sequel and I have a feeling the beat will remain the same. Now I have been very back and forth on how I was going to pick this fight. Will Ruiz stay hungry and come in as motivated as before? Will Joshua take it upon himself to refocus and commit himself entirely to winning this fight like his life and career depend on it? (This May be the case for him as far as his career goes by the way) I am not one to write a fighter off after a loss especially one to a quality opponent. That being said it wasn’t the fact that Joshua lost that gave me cause for concern  it was HOW he lost. Joshua looked broken, he looked tired, and he looked completely shot mentally. His body language said it all when the ref stopped it, he didn’t want to fight he had a choice to try and continue try to find a way to win and in that moment he choose to quit. That is a hard loss to recover from and an immediate rematch might end up being the same story as the first fight for AJ.

Look to earlier this year when Alberto Machado was upset and KOed by Robert Cancio. This fluke KO proved to be no mistake as the immediate rematch was an even more dominate win from Cancio and in the rematch Machado looked mentally broken and hopeless. I think we are probably going to see the same thing play out in the Joshua vs Ruiz rematch. I expect the first 2-3 rounds to be close and then for Ruiz to open up and start putting combinations together which will quickly lead to Joshua breaking down again.

Doubt is a hard thing to get over and I think Joshua will not be able to conquer in this fight. I do believe he wants to but he has looked chinny in the past and he didn’t take it well to the head or body in their first meeting and I see no reason why that would be different. My pick- Ruiz by stoppage in 6

Kyles boxing picks 5/18/2019

Boxing May 18

May 18 ESPN+

Billy Joe Saunders vs Shefat Ifusi

WBO Interim Super Middle Title

-No one really knows much about Ifusi, has fought mostly outside of the US and hasn’t fought a real name. Saunders, when motivated, is one of the slickest fighters in the game. I expect Saunders to come through and set himself up for a big fight in the fall. 

Prediction

Saunders by comfortable unanimous decision

May 18 DAZN

Ivan Baranchyk vs Josh Taylor

IBF Junior Welterweight Title

Naoya Inoue vs Emmanuel Rodriguez

IBF Bantamweight Title

-I think Taylor versus Baranchyk is the best fight of the weekend. It is Baranchyk’s relentless pressure and punch output versus Taylor’s overall skill and style. I think Taylor is poised to be the next superstar from overseas and this will be his coming out party. Baracnhyk always brings the heat and will definitely be in shape and fight his ass off. I think Taylor is just the better overall fighter who wants it just as bad. 

Prediction

Taylor by Unanimous Decision in a good action fight

-Inoue is on my top pound for pound list and is one of the hardest punchers in the game pound for pound. Rodriguez is a good fighter but Inoue is a 118 pound destroyer. He should be more well known in the US but most of his fights have been in Japan. Hopefully after these next couple fights he will get more attention from fight fans in this country. 

Prediction

Inoue by Knockout

May 18 Showtime

Deontay Wilder vs Dominic Brezeale

WBC Heavyweight Title

-Brezeale is a tough guy who has some things going for him in this fight. He is just as tall as Wilder at 6-7 and will outweigh him by about 35 pounds. He can punch with 18 KO’s in 20 wins and has done it against decent competition. He has been on the big stage before, his lone loss by TKO to Anthony Joshua and he has climbed off the deck to win so he has heart. Unfortunately for him he is a little plodding and hittable and that is not good when facing a vicious puncher in Wilder. Anything can happen in the heavyweight division and I expect Brezeale to come to win. But I don’t think it will be enough.

Prediction

Wilder by KO

Kyle’s boxing picks 4/20/2019

Boxing Saturday April 20

ESPN Pay Per View Saturday Madison Square Garden

WBO Welterweight Title

Terrance Crawford (34-0) vs Amir Khan (33-4)

-Crawford, one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world today takes on Khan, a former World Champ and Olympic Silver Medallist from England. At his best, Khan, with his fast hands and boxing skills could give anyone in the world problems. His chin has been his downfall though, being stopped several times and dropped in others that he got up and won in. Crawford is overall very good at everything. The best thing he does though is he knows how to adjust. Mayweather had that skill as well. For the first several rounds it is a competitive fight but their boxing IQ is so high that they figure guys out and dominated the second half of the fight. I expect a little of that here. 

Prediction

Khan is too good to get blown out unless he just gets caught early. I do think his best days are behind him but I expect him to be very competitive for the first 4 rounds. After that though I think Crawford starts timing him and eventually gets him out of there.

Crawford TKO 8

Undercard-

Shakur Stevenson (10-0) vs Christopher Diaz(24-1)…This is a very interesting fight. One of the best prospects in boxing in Stevenson takes on his biggest test by far in Diaz. I think it will be competitive but Stevenson will pull it out. 

Stevenson by Decision

Teofimo Lopez (12-0) vs Edis Tatli (33-2)…Lopez is the best prospect in boxing in most peoples eyes. A skilled boxer with big power he is on the fast track to a title shot. Not much is known about Tatli and he has a good record and Im sure has some skills. But it won’t be enough..

Lopez by KO

Fox Saturday April 20

Danny Garcia (34-2) vs Adrian Granados (20-6-2)

-I expect a good competitive fight here. Garcia is a big puncher with his left hook and always seems to find a way to win. Granados is a pressure fighter with a good chin who comes forward and is hard to discourage. I think if Garcia is able to hurt Granados early it will make life easier for him. If Granados can crowd him and make him uncomfortable and outwork him he can make it a rough night for Garcia. While I think an upset is possible I can’t go with it. 

Prediction

Garcia by Decision

Kyle’s boxing picks 4/12-4/13/2019

Upcoming Fights

Friday April 12 

ESPN+

Vasyl Lomachenko (12-1 9 KO’s) vs Anthony Crolla (34-6-3 13 KO”s)

Friday night on the ESPN App ESPN+ you get to see, in my opinion, the best fighter in the world pound for pound, Vasyl Lomachenko. A two time Olympic Gold Medallist who had a remarkable 395-1 record as an amateur he is now a 3 division champion in his short pro career. A southpaw with great speed, defense and footwork he also can punch with both hands to the head and body. Truly one of the highest skilled fighters I have ever seen in 30 years of watching boxing. 

In Anthony Crolla, Loma will have a tough determined opponent. Based out of England Crolla is a gutsy fighter who has competed well at the world class level. He is a come forward pressure fighter who shows a good chin comes to fight. Not the biggest puncher in the world he looks to wear you down and outwork you. Most recently he lost two straight to Jorge Linares, one of the better fighters in the world at the time. In those two losses though he was competitive and barely lost the first of the two fights. 

I have a ton of respect for Crolla but unfortunately I think he is totally outclassed in this fight. He does not have the power to hurt Loma with one shot and there is no way he can outbox him. His only shot would be to pressure him, wear him down and outwork him. But Loma is always in great condition, throws precise combinations that will eat up a pressure fighter unless they have great defense and has proven to be mentally tough on top of physically tough. He may have a tough time stopping Crolla, who is always in great shape, has shown a good chin and is the naturally bigger guy but I don’t think he loses more than 2 rounds in winning a 12 round unanimous decision. 

Prediction 

Lomachenko Unanimous Decision

Also on ESPN+ Gilberto Ramirez vs Tommy Karpency (Light Heavy)

Saturday April 13

Showtime

Claressa Shields (8-0 2 KO’s) vs Christina Hammer (24-0 11KO’s)

Undisputed Female Middleweight Title

Arguably the biggest women’s professional fight of all time. It pits Shields, a two time Olympic Gold Medallist from Flint,Michigan and an undefeated world champ as  a pro versus the undefeated world champion from Germany in Hammer. 

I expect a competitive good fight here. Shields is the favorite and rightfully so even though she has much less experience as a pro. She is an aggressive boxer/puncher with skills and is very confident. Hammer is more of a classic boxer and has fought all of her career in Europe. Shields will have to press her and try to make her uncomfortable and Hammer will try to box and move and frustrate Shields, who has shown some vulnerability recently. 

Prediction

Shields by close Split Decision

Saturday April 13

Fox Sports 1

Caleb Truax (30-4-2 19 KO’s) vs Peter Quillin (34-1-1 23 KO’s)

This is a very interesting fight. Both guys won world titles at 160 and have now moved up to 168. Quillin, at his best is the better more skilled explosive fighter. Truax is more of a blue collar journeyman who overachieved and has become a very solid pro. But Quillin’s best days were several years ago and he has only fought several times over the past several years. The question here is can he bring back the fire and determination he had when he still had something to prove and no money in the bank. Im going to go with the more active fighter who I think is still a little hungrier in a mild upset. 

Prediction

Truax by Split Decision

Sergey Derivyenchenko (12-1 10 KO’s) vs Jack Culcay (25-3 13 KO’s)

Fox Sports 1 Saturday April 13

This is another very interesting fight on a very good Fox Sports 1 card Saturday night. Derivyenchenko is coming off a very close decision loss to one of the best middleweights in the world (Danny Jacobs) and only a little over a year ago Culcay lost a very close decision to one of the best middleweights in the world in Demetrius Andrade. Culcay has fought mainly in Europe, where they are known to protect their fighters with controversial judges and careful opponents. That does not mean Culcay can’t fight, he definitely can, but Derivyenchenko has fought his career in the US and lives and trains out of NYC where he is consistently getting high level sparring with very good fighters. I just think he has a little more of everything and will be too much for Culcay. Fairly competitive early but Sergey pulls away in the middle rounds and leaves no doubt in a good solid fight. 

Prediction

Derivyenchenko Unanimous Decision

Also this weekend:

Saturday April 13

DAZN

Jaime Munguia (32-0 26 KO’s) vs Dennis Hogan (28-1 7 KO’s)

Munguia defends his WBO Junior Middleweight title against Hogan, a good fighter but not on the level of Munguia.

Prediction

Munguia TKO 10

Kyle’s boxing picks 3/16/2019

Saturday March 16 Pay Per View

Mikey Garcia (39-0 30 KO’s) vs Errol Spence (24-0 21 KO’s)

IBF World Welterweight Title

This is a great fight. No other way to say it. Boxing is at its best when you have two undefeated champions, both in their prime, who are willing to put it on the line and this is exactly what this is. I am not a big fan of the pay per view model for boxing and I think it has hurt the sport, especially when most fights on pay per view have been mismatches over the past ten years or so. But this one is worth it and is not a mismatch. Most importantly, you have to recognize that Garcia is moving up two weight divisions from where he is a current champion and one weight division higher than his previous highest weight to take on someone who many believe is the best welter in the world. This is a cause for concern for those picking Garcia and it is understandable. I would rather look at it though as all great fighters over the past century have taken on challenges that many thought were crazy. Think Ali-George Foreman and Sugar Ray Leonard-Marvin Hagler to name two. When you do something like that and win it makes you a legend and I think Garcia understands that. 

I disagree with most of the experts in saying that Spence is the best 147 pound fighter in the world. I have him at number two behind Terrance Crawford but only by a very thin margin. A former Olympian and undefeated champ he is a power punching southpaw who, unlike most lefties, comes forward and looks to take you out. I say this realizing that Spence has a weaker resume than even the two welters I have ranked immediately behind him. (Shawn Porter and Keith Thurman) His last fight was against a virtual no name and before that he defeated Lamont Peterson, a solid fighter but towards the lower end of the top 10. His title winning effort in England against Kell Brook was impressive and his best win. Brook took this fight right after getting his eye socket broken in a very physically taxing fight against GGG at middleweight. That may have had zero effect on Brook but sometimes fights like those take a little something out of you. This will be Spence’s first huge event in the United States and his first pay per view main event. 

Mikey Garcia is a very versatile fighter, a guy who can box and move but also possesses one punch knockout power. He is basic but does everything very well and rarely makes big mistakes. His boxing IQ is very high, most of that due to the fact he comes from a boxing family and has been doing this since he was 6. He first won a world title at 126 pounds and proceeded to win one at 130 and just as his career was about to take off he took a two year layoff due to promotional issues with Top Rank. Coming back he had one tuneup fight, a win by knockout and got a title shot at 135 pounds which he won by knockout. Since then he has won another 3 fights against big names and added a world title at 140 pounds. So while the fight this Saturday is at 147 which will be a career high for Garcia, he does own a world title only one weight division lower. 

I have been going back and forth with my pick for this fight for weeks. My initial reaction to the fight was Spence was just too big and a good big man usually beats a good little man. Usually is a key term though and great fighters upset the odds and I believe Garcia will be remembered as a great fighter. Having said this the size does scare me a little. Seeing them side by side at the press conference there is a noticeable difference. I think come fight time Garcia will close some of that by very smart conditioning and strength training but it will still be there. And while Garcia has shown vicious knockout power at 135 pounds and down he has won both his fights at 140 pounds by decision.(Although in his title winning effort against Sergey Lippinets he scored a clean knockdown). The other win was against Adrien Broner and while Broner is overrated as a fighter he has toughness and a very good chin. The bigger puncher here will be Spence. While Spence is not just a banger,he has skills,  I think Garcia is a better overall fighter with more options. Several things concern me for Garcia though. First, will he be able to land his jab over Spence’s lead right hand. Hitting a southpaw with a jab can be done but it is more difficult and a lot of fighters do not use it as much when fighting a lefty. Second, the size. Even if Garcia jumps out to a lead will he be able to hold on with a bigger stronger very good fighter constantly putting pressure on him. Third, the judges. Texas has a reputation for controversial decisions and Spence is a Texas fighter. If Garcia does enough to win will the judges give a decision in a close fight. While I think punchers are born and not made(Garcia is a natural puncher) and most great punchers in history have brought there power up in weight with them I still find it hard to believe that Garcia will be able to knock out Spence. Spence has shown a very solid chin although he has not faced a great puncher yet. I don’t expect his chin to betray him although I could envision a flash knockdown from a straight right hand if he just tries to walk in on Garcia without using skills, believing the talk that he is just too big for Garcia. My point here is that Garcia will probably have to rely on the judges if he is going to win. This is a coin toss fight for me and at the end of the day I am going to go against the odds and most experts and go with the person who I think is the better overall fighter and who I think has the guts, pride and toughness to pull off an upset. 

Prediction

Garcia by split decision