Kyle’s boxing picks 1/26/2019

Saturday January 26

Fox  8pmET

Keith Thurman vs Josesito Lopez Welterweights

Adam Kownacki vs Gerald Washington Heavyweights

Thurman vs Lopez

-When Keith Thurman beat Danny Garcia in 2017 it cemented his claim as the best Welterweight in the world to most people. That was impressive considering how stacked that division was. No one knew that would be the final fight of 2017 and Thurman would not fight at all in 2018. This Saturday marks his first fight back in almost two years and so much has happened in the division since then I do not believe that you can say Thurman is still the best after such a long layoff. It will be very interesting to see how he looks after such inactivity. 

Thurmans back to back wins against Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia were the two fights that made him a superstar and put him in the pound for pound discussion. While a couple minor injuries were partially responsible for the layoff he was scheduled to fight several times before this and for one reason or another they did not come off. Thurman’s attitude has changed as well. There was a time when he claimed to want to fight only the best, was not worried about keeping an undefeated record and was in it for the glory and not the money. That has definitely changed. He has now adopted the businessman persona and seems to put much more thought into his opponents and is more worried about money and being safety first than he is in becoming the best fighter in the world. Some people will say there is nothing wrong with that and I get it. But I miss the old Thurman. His skills are undeniable, a very good boxer puncher and a very good athlete. He has shown championship heart as well. His power has not seemed to hold up against top competition though. While still a solid puncher he is not the one punch destroyer that he seemed to be when he was knocking out lesser opponents. And we do not really know how he will react after an injury and a two year layoff. 

Josesito Lopez has a fighting style that fits his nickname, “The Riverside Rocky”. An action fighter who comes forward, has good skills, good chin and a huge heart. A solid win against Mike Dallas and a close decision loss to Jessie Vargas preceded his big opportunity against Victor Ortiz. In an upset and a great action fight Lopez fought toe to toe with Ortiz, breaking his jaw and stopping him late. That win propelled him up a weight class to fight Canelo Alvarez. While he gave a great effort, he was undersized and not strong enough and was stopped in the middle rounds. He is 6-2 since that fight with the two losses coming against top fighters Marcos Maidana and Andre Berto in fights where he was competitive but came up a little short. 

Lopez always comes in shape and fights to win. He has good experience against top fighters and I am sure in his heart he believes he can beat Thurman. The two year layoff combined with Lopez’s tenacity may make for an interesting fight for the first 6 rounds. I can see Thurman being cautious to start but Lopez’s aggressiveness may not allow for too much of that. At the end of the day Thurman has more talent and ability and I think that will help him prevail in the end. I think that Lopez may go the distance though and will win some early rounds in the process. 

Prediction

Thurman by Unanimous Decision

Kownacki vs Washington

-This is an interesting heavyweight fight between a fringe contender/prospect in Kownacki and former title challenger Washington. They have contrasting styles and fight very differently but when you mix them together there are a lot of different outcomes that I can see happening. 

Kownacki is undefeated and fights out of Brooklyn NY where he was a solid NYC amateur before turning pro. He does not look the part at all, seems to be carrying 25 pounds too much and  if this was a bodybuilding contest then Washington would win by first round KO. But that stuff does not matter although I think it would help Kownacki to drop some of the baby fat. His style, which is a come forward and let your hands go type  is based on good conditioning and a good chin with pretty good power. So far his chin has held up and it has been tested because Kownacki is not hard to find. I really hope he improves his defense because as he fights better guys he is going to need it. That is not to say he has not fought solid competition, his last two wins were against title challenger Artur Szpilka and former champion Charles Martin and he looked good in both. 

Washington is big, 6 foot 6 and very strong. He is a decent puncher but not as big of one as you would think by looking at him. He is 19-2 with his two losses both being by stoppage against top contender Jarell Miller and heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder. He made a good showing against Wilder before being stopped. He is a patient fighter who works off his back foot and uses his height and jab, totally opposite of Kownacki. While Washington has solid wins over faded ex contenders in Eddie Chambers and Ray Austin it is Kownacki who has beaten the better competition while it is Washington who has fought the better competition. 

I expect Kownacki to come right to Washington at the opening bell. That is his style and I don’t think he can fight any other way. To sit on the outside with his lack of defense and Washington’s height and long jab would be very bad for Kownacki. A big factor in this fight will be if Washington is able to hurt Kownacki early. He will definitely hit him but if he can not back him off then Kownacki’s work rate and inside work may frustrate Washington. This is a tough fight to pick and I could see either guy winning. I am going to go with Kownacki and his punch output. 

Prediction

Kownacki by Decision

News and Notes:

-Also on Saturday Junior middle champ Jaime Munguia defends his title against challenger Takashi Inoue. Not much is known about Inoue and it seems to be a stay busy fight for Munguia as he preps for bigger fights coming up. DAZN will televise.

 

-Top heavyweight prospect Joe Joyce takes a step up when he fights former World Champion Bermane Stiverne in February. I do not see Joyce having a problem in this. Stiverne’s has shown a lack of discipline in his conditioning and is past his best. Joyce is on a roll and is one of the biggest punchers in the heavyweight division. I expect Joyce to win by KO.

-Hopefully we have seen the last of Adrien Broner after his one sided loss to Manny Pacquaio. He is the most overrated fighter of this generation and at 147 pounds is not a top fighter. The only thing that keeps him in big fights are his antics outside of the ring which have been old for a while on top of being unbelievably ignorant. He does not belong in with the best fighters in the world anymore and has done nothing to earn those fights. Boxing will be better off without him. 

-The fights Saturday are being televised on Fox during primetime. Great for the sport and I am expecting a big audience to be tuning in. I believe both fights have the opportunity to be action packed so lets hope they deliver.

Kyle’s boxing picks 1/19/2019

Showtime Pay Per View Saturday January 19

Manny Pacquaio vs Adrien Broner

Badou Jack vs Marcus Browne

Jack vs Browne (Light Heavyweights)

This is a very interesting fight. Browne, a former Olympian and a top prospect who is now a title contender versus former world champion Badou Jack. This is a fight that I could see either guy winning by decision or KO and that is rare and is what makes it something fans should be looking forward to. 

Jack has fought by far the better competition. Considering that he was a world champion at 168 pound before moving up to 175 should make that pretty obvious. He is the naturally smaller guy but his two fights at light heavy have proven that he belongs there. He dominated and stopped former champion Nathan Cleverly and then fought to a draw with Light Heavy champ at the time Adonis Stevenson in a fight that, while close, most thought Jack won. He also holds wins over George Groves and Anthony Direll at 168 pounds. Jack has good skills, solid power and although his one loss is by KO, since that fight he has fought some big punchers and his chin and heart have held up very well. 

Marcus Browne is a big, strong light heavy. A former Olympian and a southpaw, he has very good skills and good power. His level of competition as a pro has been decent although Jack is a big step up. There have been fights where Browne looks sensational, his KO over Seanie Monaghan comes to mind. But there have also been fights where he looks very vulnerable and he has been dropped several times by different fighters. 

I think this fight will be very competitive for the first 6 rounds. I can see both guys hurting the other and maybe even scoring an early knockdown. I think though that Jack still has something left in the tank and his experience in gutting out close 12 round fights against world class fighters like James Degale, Adonis Stevenson and Lucian Bute will be the difference. It is possible that after a long career and some hard fought battles that Jack’s best days are behind him and if he gets old overnight than Browne is definitely good enough to get the W. But I think my first scenario is more probable and Jack will pull away in the second half of the fight and probably win by decision although a late KO is possible. 

Prediction

Jack by Unanimous Decision

Pacquaio vs Broner (Welterweights)

This fight is huge when it comes to name recognition which is why it is on pay per view but it does not belong there. A 40 year old Pac versus a guy who has basically done nothing in his last several fights. Don’t get me wrong, I am interested in it and believe it will be entertaining but I think it should be on Showtime and not on pay per view. 

Even though Pac is 40 and is not the fighter he was 5 years ago he is still world class and still beats world class fighters. His last win was a stoppage over former world champion Lucas Mathysse which was very impressive although it seemed to me that for some reason Mathysse fought without any fire at all. Pac also holds a dominant win over Jessie Vargas, a guy that Broner fought to a draw with fairly recently. We all know what Pac does. He throws fast combinations from a southpaw stance and gives great angles while doing it. This style will be a nightmare for Broner. 

Broner at 135 pounds looked like a star and he did win several world titles in different weight classes. Unfortunately for him though he kept moving up in weight and every time he did that he was less impressive. He simply is a very small welterweight and has never looked very impressive at 147 pounds. He has two wins, two losses and a draw in this division. The two wins were both very close decisions and the losses were both pretty clear. At 147 he has become very flat footed with a hands up defense and counterpunches more than takes the lead. 

As I said earlier, stylewise this fight is horrible for Broner. He stands still and puts his hands up, letting his opponent get his punches off and then Broner looks to counterpunch. Letting someone with Pacquaio’s speed get off and waiting to counter will never work. Pacquaio’s angles and footwork will have him out of danger by the time Broner fires back. Even if a lot of the punches are blocked by Broner Pac will still outwork him by a lot. And at 147 pounds Broner is a very average puncher so I don’t believe that he will be able to hurt Pac. I do not expect this to be very competitive, there are probably 10 guys at 147 who beat Broner and Pac is one of them although Broner has a good chin and does not take chances so he will probably go the distance.

Prediction

Pac by Unanimous Decision

Other action this weekend:

-Bryant Jennings vs Oscar Rivas(Heavyweights) Televised by ESPN+

Good solid heavyweight fight. Jennings the veteran contender and Rivas, a former Olympian with a glossy record but taking a big step up. Jennings still should have enough left to get the W and put himself into a big fight next.

-Demetrius Andrade vs Artur Avakov (WBO Middleweight Title)

Jorge Linares vs Pablo Cesar Cano (Lightweights)

Both of these fights will be televised on DAZN live from the Theater at MSG

Quick Notes:

Caleb Plant’s win over Jose Uzcategui for a piece of the Super Middleweight title this past Sunday was a perfect example of a guy who gets his shot and does not let it slip away. Uzcategui was the way more experienced fighter who had beaten much better competition. I expected him to handle Plant and stop him late. To Plant’s credit he came out in the first round, stood his ground and got respect, scoring two knockdowns in the first 6 rounds. When Uzcategui tried to rally late Plant was able to hold him off showing a good chin and conditioning. I gained a ton of respect for Plant and that was a big W and he is now a legit world champion.

Every year there is usually a big fight on Cinco De Mayo weekend and this year will be no different. Canelo Alvarez versus Danny Jacob’s just got made for May 4 and this is a great fight, probably the best fight you could make in the middleweight division. If I had to guess I would think the winner will be gunning for GGG again. My initial thought here is that Canelo wins but Jacobs is a very good fighter who will definitley come to fight and can not be taken lightly. The best part here is that it will be shown live on DAZN which means no pay per view. Pay your 9.99 a month and you can watch. These streaming apps like DAZN and ESPN+ are the future and that is good news because they will be replacing PPV which is dying a slow death.