Kyle’s boxing picks 9/29/2018

George Groves vs Callum Smith

WBA Super Middleweight Title

World Boxing Super Series Final

Watch on DAZN Friday Sept 28

-This is a very interesting fight. I believe it will be very competitive and will be close. Groves is coming off a shoulder injury which pushed this fight back a couple months and is coming off an impressive decision win against Chris Eubank JR. Overall Groves has fought the better competition although he came up short in most of them. Two KO losses to Carl Froch and a points loss to Badou Jack  were his first three shots at a world title before he finally prevailed and won it. None of those losses are anything to be ashamed of. He was competitive in all of them and Froch and Jack are both very good fighters. Callum Smith is undefeated and this will be his first world title shot. Trained by one of the top trainers in the sport, Joe Gallagher and coming from a fighting family, several brothers of his are highly ranked pros, I expect him to be ready. He is definitely the fresher fighter and injury free compared to Groves having been in several really tough fights and coming off the shoulder surgery which I mentioned earlier. An interesting side note to this fight is it will take place in Saudi Arabia, a first as far as I know. 

Prediction

-This is tough to call. Both guys have good skills and have solid fundamentals. The safe pick would be Groves. He has fought at a higher level for longer and is coming off a good win against Eubank. I am leaning toward Smith though. Groves, I feel , may start to feel the effects of a lot of tough fights and he also is coming off surgery on his shoulder. Smith has had  a lot of time to prepare, is injury free and hungry for a world title. I do not think that Smith will stop Groves though. Both guys are good punchers but not great punchers. I think the fight will go 12 no matter who wins. 

Pick- Smith by Split Decision

-Random thoughts and Ideas

-With HBO today announcing they are leaving boxing it was surprising to many people. The writing has been on the wall for a little while though. For the past several years Showtime has been getting the better of that head to head battle and with the reemergence of big fights on free tv people did not need HBO anymore to watch good fights. Fox and ESPN have made a huge commitment to boxing for the years to come and this is all a positive for the sport. Another service which is getting into the boxing business aggressively is the emergence of streaming services such as ESPN+ and DAZN. I have both and have come to like them although I was hesitant at first. ESPN+ has shown good fights and the quality of the video is very good although I am not a fan of the site because there is a ton going on and it can be hard to navigate through and find what you are looking for. At 5 dollars a month though it is a bargain for the content they have. DAZN is the newest one to come out and was started by Eddie Hearn, a British promoter who quickly is becoming one of the most powerful in the sport. Last weeks heavyweight title fight between Anthony Joshua and Povetkin was the first fight to be televised by DAZN and it was a good one. The Groves-Smith fight this weekend is also on DAZN and many more big fights to come will be there as well. Unlike ESPN+ the site is very easy to navigate and find what you are looking for, I had zero problems using it. Getting started is easy as well, just go to DAZN.com, give an email and a password and you are in. The first month is free and is 10 dollars a month after. Looking at the fighters Eddie Hearn has and the upcoming schedule it will be a very well spent 10 dollars. 

-After watching Anthony Joshua stop Povetkin in the 8th last week my opinion has not changed on the outcome of him versus Deontay Wilder if that fight ever does happen. I still think Wilder knocks him out. Povetkin was very competitive through 7 until he got caught. That is ok though, Povetkin is a very good fighter. Joshua is technically a superior fighter to Wilder.  But he stands very straight up and does not move his head. If he is open for anything it is a straight right hand down the middle behind a jab. That is the combination that Klitschko put him down with and it is Wilder’s best punch. And Wilder is the biggest puncher in the heavyweight division today. In order to get to this fight though Wilder has to get past Tyson Fury first. They will fight DEC 1 in Los Angeles and this is very interesting. I am leaning toward Wilder but I do not think it will be easy. 

-Lots of good boxing this weekend. Here is the lineup:

Friday September 28

-ESPN+ Jose Uzcategui vs Ezequiel Maderna

Jerwin Ancajas vs Alejandro Santiago IBF junior bantamweigh title

Friday September 28

-Showtime 945 pm

Devin Haney-Juan Carlos Burgos

Thomas Mattice vs Zora Hamarzyan

Friday September 28

-DAZN

George Groves - Callum Smith

Saturday Sept 29

-Facebook Watch 9 pm

Jorge Linares vs Abner Cotto

Sunday Sept 30 

-Fox Sports 1- 9 pm

Brandon Figueroa vs Oscar Escandon

Kyle’s boxing picks 9/22/2018

Heavyweight Title Fight

Anthony Joshua vs Alexander Povetkin

Wembley Stadium Saturday September 22

Fight will be first to be shown on the new DAZN streaming app.

-This, to me, is an extremely interesting fight. Both are Olympic Gold Medallists who have won a piece of the heavyweight title at one point. Povetkin lost that piece several years back in his one career loss by points to Wladimir Klitschko. Since that loss he has won 8 straight, 6 by knockout against pretty solid competition. He is on the shorter side for a heavyweight, about 6-1 but can punch with both hands and is very well schooled. Povetkin has actually fought and beat a higher calibre of opponent than Joshua has in his short career. And I would say very confidently that other than the Klitschko fight this is Joshua’s biggest challenge so far. Povetkin is a better fighter than Joseph Parker and Dillian Whyte in my opinion although it is close. Povetkin is 39 years old but has not seemed to slow down much. Joshua’s advantages are age, size and the home field advantage. 

Prediction

-This is a tough one for me to call. If you are betting I would go with Povetkin. He is a fairly big underdog which to me is very strange. In my eyes Joshua should be a very slight favorite. I think there is a very good chance that both guys get hurt in this fight and I expect it to be very competitive. I can definitely see there being an upset and with so many big fights on the horizon for Joshua I was a little surprised when he signed on for this fight. Having to choose though I will go with Joshua only because I feel it is his time and he will find a way. I don’t expect it to be easy though. 

Joshua TKO 9

-Canelo Alvarez vs GGG.

The replay should be on HBO Saturday night and if you did not see it definitely tune in, it was a very good action packed competitive fight. I personally had Canelo winning by a point. I thought the judges did a great job, all three were very close and I agreed. A robbery it definitely was not and saying that takes away from a great night of boxing. Honestly the only boxing person that I saw that had a big problem with the decision was Teddy Atlas and that is not surprising to me. He talked himself out of a commentating job with ESPN and to me that is good. He can’t have a conversation without starting an argument and he sees conspiracies in his sleep. It is always his way or the highway and he thinks he is the absolute authority on the sport. It has gotten old to me and many others. Don’t take away from this fight with wild conspiracies and dramatics. It was a great fight with great action and the officials did a great job. If you thought GGG won by a round I can not argue but there were many close rounds and there should be no controversy over the decision. 

Kyle’s boxing picks 9/15/2018

ESPN Friday Night Jose Ramirez vs Antonio Orozco

-This could end up stealing the show on a huge boxing weekend. The styles of both of these undefeated fighters is all action, come forward aggression. Ramirez won the world title with a very impressive performance against Amir Imam and is wasting no time in jumping right back in to a tough fight. Orozco is a very strong aggressive fighter who also has some skills. What worries me about him is his inactivity. I believe he fought only once in 2016 and once in 2017 and now this is his first fight in 2018. I have also seen him get rocked by a left hook in a fight and although he came back and won he was in trouble for a minute. While I am going with Ramirez I can see this being a great fight for about 4 rounds until Ramirez takes over and stops Orozco. 

Prediction- Ramirez TKO 7

HBO PPV Saturday Night

-Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez vs Moises Fuentes

This will be Gonzalez’s first fight back since losing back to back title fights last year. While I always considered him a very good fighter I never thought he was the pound for pound best fighter in the world. I honestly don’t know anyone who did other than Lampley and Kellerman and the people at HBO who just gave him that title. Regardless though he is a fun aggressive skilled fighter whose best days are behind him. This seems to be a safe fight for him though. Fuentes in his last fight was stopped at a weight lower than what they are fighting at Saturday night. 

Prediction-Gonzalez TKO 4

-Jaime Munguia vs Brandon Cook

Munguia is one of the most exciting new champions in the sport. He won his world title with a total destruction of Saddam Ali and has since defended it against a solid fighter in Liam Smith. He is a very big junior middle who is very aggressive, has a great chin and can punch. Those are the positives. The negative is he is very hittable. Cook is a tough guy who has some solid wins against good competition and whose only loss was to an undefeated fighter by late stoppage. I expect a similar outcome. Cook will hit Munguia but not be able to hurt him and gradually get worn down. 

Prediction- Munguia KO 8

-David Lemieux vs Spike O’ Sullivan

This is a very interesting matchup and should be a very good fight. Lemieux is one of the most aggressive biggest punchers in the sport. Flawed in many other areas including defense and boxing ability his power has brought him to the top levels of the sport. When he is on he looks great, when he is not he looks bad. I think he is closing in towards the end of his career. A lot of tough fights are beginning to take its toll and he also seems to struggle making 160 which may hurt and weaken him here. O’Sullivan has been on a roll and has some good KO wins himself recently. He also seems to have a good chin which you need to fight Lemieux. I think this could be the end of Lemieux in big fights at 160 and I expect him to come out firing and probably win the first couple rounds and maybe even hurt or drop O’sullivan. But O’Sullivan will get through it and begin to wear Lemieux down. By the middle rounds I expect Lemieux to really fade and maybe get stopped late. 

Preciction-O’Sullivan TKO 9

-Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin

This is the big one and one of the best fights to be made in the sport. A rematch which was put on hold for a couple months due to Canelo’s  failed drug test for PED’s. While Adelaide Byrd’s scorecard in the first fight was totally ridiculous in favor of Canelo I did not have an issue with a draw. I thought GGG won 7-5 in rounds so I thought it was close. At 36 GGG seems to be slowing down just a little and Canelo should be coming into his prime. There are a lot of things that GGG should do differently in the rematch, most notably invest in going to the body which he did none of in the first fight which was totally out of character. I believe the main reason for that was Canelo's movement and counterpunching ability. Canelo will need to stand his ground a little more this time if he wants to do enough to win. That is hard to do and dangerous against a puncher like GGG. I have to say I am not a fan of Canelo. I think he is arrogant and the way he has handled his failed PED test is embarrassing. I will be rooting for GGG but unfortunately I think Canelo will make the adjustments needed. 

Prediction- Canelo by Split Decision 

Kyle’s boxing picks 9/8/2018

Showtime 9pm ET Saturday Tripleheader

- Yordenis Ugas- Cesar Barrionuevo (Welterweight Title Eliminator)

-Ugas has been on a serious run ever since a close loss to Amir Imam several years back. A very skilled former Cuban amateur star, he can box and he can punch. Good wins over Thomas Delorme, Ray Robinson and Bryant Perella have set up this title eliminator for him. As for Barrionuevo he has a very impressive record but most of his fights have been in Argentina against guys with decent records but also guys we have never heard of. That doesn’t mean he can’t fight but it doesn’t mean he can. I will go for the sure thing because I know Ugas can fight. 

Pick- Ugas by Unanimous Decision

-Charles Martin- Adam Kownacki (Heavyweights)

-This is a very interesting heavyweight fight with the potential to have a lot of action. Kownacki is undefeated and has a couple quality wins over the last year. He is a come forward pressure fighter with some power who also takes shots and has a good chin but at times a little too hittable. Martin has skills and power as well although he came up short in a less than impressive loss to Anthony Joshua in the first defense of his heavyweight title which Martin won when his previous opponent hurt his knee in the middle of the fight. I can see this ending multiple ways. I could see Kownacki pressuring Martin and taking two to give one. If his chin can hold up I could see him wearing Martin out and stopping him late. But like I said earlier Kownacki is hittable and Martin is by far the best guy he has ever faced. Martin could bust him up and stop him. 

Pick- Tough call but I will go with Kownacki by late stoppage. 

Shawn Porter-Danny Garcia (Welterweights)

-This is one of the biggest evenly matched fights of the year. Both guys are at the top of the division and have multiple quality wins while they both have close losses to the same fighter in Keith Thurman although Porter fought more impressively in that loss. Garcia is a counterpuncher who stands his ground when you attack and his best weapon is a great counter left hook. Porter is mostly a pressure fighter with a lot of physical strength who can push you all over the ring if you let him. Porter did get dropped by a left hook by Adrien Broner and that is Garcia’s best punch. But Porter got up and beat Broner. If Garcia wins I believe it will be by KO where he just catches Porter coming in. I am going with Porter though, I think his workrate and activity will be too much. 

Pick- Porter by Decision

-There is also a great triple header on HBO Saturday night and do not forget about The Contender on Epix Friday night. 

Kyle P