Saturday March 16 Pay Per View
Mikey Garcia (39-0 30 KO’s) vs Errol Spence (24-0 21 KO’s)
IBF World Welterweight Title
This is a great fight. No other way to say it. Boxing is at its best when you have two undefeated champions, both in their prime, who are willing to put it on the line and this is exactly what this is. I am not a big fan of the pay per view model for boxing and I think it has hurt the sport, especially when most fights on pay per view have been mismatches over the past ten years or so. But this one is worth it and is not a mismatch. Most importantly, you have to recognize that Garcia is moving up two weight divisions from where he is a current champion and one weight division higher than his previous highest weight to take on someone who many believe is the best welter in the world. This is a cause for concern for those picking Garcia and it is understandable. I would rather look at it though as all great fighters over the past century have taken on challenges that many thought were crazy. Think Ali-George Foreman and Sugar Ray Leonard-Marvin Hagler to name two. When you do something like that and win it makes you a legend and I think Garcia understands that.
I disagree with most of the experts in saying that Spence is the best 147 pound fighter in the world. I have him at number two behind Terrance Crawford but only by a very thin margin. A former Olympian and undefeated champ he is a power punching southpaw who, unlike most lefties, comes forward and looks to take you out. I say this realizing that Spence has a weaker resume than even the two welters I have ranked immediately behind him. (Shawn Porter and Keith Thurman) His last fight was against a virtual no name and before that he defeated Lamont Peterson, a solid fighter but towards the lower end of the top 10. His title winning effort in England against Kell Brook was impressive and his best win. Brook took this fight right after getting his eye socket broken in a very physically taxing fight against GGG at middleweight. That may have had zero effect on Brook but sometimes fights like those take a little something out of you. This will be Spence’s first huge event in the United States and his first pay per view main event.
Mikey Garcia is a very versatile fighter, a guy who can box and move but also possesses one punch knockout power. He is basic but does everything very well and rarely makes big mistakes. His boxing IQ is very high, most of that due to the fact he comes from a boxing family and has been doing this since he was 6. He first won a world title at 126 pounds and proceeded to win one at 130 and just as his career was about to take off he took a two year layoff due to promotional issues with Top Rank. Coming back he had one tuneup fight, a win by knockout and got a title shot at 135 pounds which he won by knockout. Since then he has won another 3 fights against big names and added a world title at 140 pounds. So while the fight this Saturday is at 147 which will be a career high for Garcia, he does own a world title only one weight division lower.
I have been going back and forth with my pick for this fight for weeks. My initial reaction to the fight was Spence was just too big and a good big man usually beats a good little man. Usually is a key term though and great fighters upset the odds and I believe Garcia will be remembered as a great fighter. Having said this the size does scare me a little. Seeing them side by side at the press conference there is a noticeable difference. I think come fight time Garcia will close some of that by very smart conditioning and strength training but it will still be there. And while Garcia has shown vicious knockout power at 135 pounds and down he has won both his fights at 140 pounds by decision.(Although in his title winning effort against Sergey Lippinets he scored a clean knockdown). The other win was against Adrien Broner and while Broner is overrated as a fighter he has toughness and a very good chin. The bigger puncher here will be Spence. While Spence is not just a banger,he has skills, I think Garcia is a better overall fighter with more options. Several things concern me for Garcia though. First, will he be able to land his jab over Spence’s lead right hand. Hitting a southpaw with a jab can be done but it is more difficult and a lot of fighters do not use it as much when fighting a lefty. Second, the size. Even if Garcia jumps out to a lead will he be able to hold on with a bigger stronger very good fighter constantly putting pressure on him. Third, the judges. Texas has a reputation for controversial decisions and Spence is a Texas fighter. If Garcia does enough to win will the judges give a decision in a close fight. While I think punchers are born and not made(Garcia is a natural puncher) and most great punchers in history have brought there power up in weight with them I still find it hard to believe that Garcia will be able to knock out Spence. Spence has shown a very solid chin although he has not faced a great puncher yet. I don’t expect his chin to betray him although I could envision a flash knockdown from a straight right hand if he just tries to walk in on Garcia without using skills, believing the talk that he is just too big for Garcia. My point here is that Garcia will probably have to rely on the judges if he is going to win. This is a coin toss fight for me and at the end of the day I am going to go against the odds and most experts and go with the person who I think is the better overall fighter and who I think has the guts, pride and toughness to pull off an upset.
Prediction
Garcia by split decision
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